BIOPHARMA MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Better intelligence helps answer one of biopharma’s most challenging questions:
What is a development-stage program really worth?
Smarter Market Comparables
Phase 2 oncology deals with proof of concept paid 4× the upfront of those without.
Value your asset4× higher median upfront
The Deal Market, Mapped
Where the money goes, by therapeutic area, modality and stage.
Upfront by Therapeutic Area
Upfront by Modality
License Economics Evolve Across Stages
What Conventional Wisdom Gets Wrong
A well-validated target lifts the upfront 1.3×
Assets from China command 1.7× higher upfronts
Large pharma pays 6% less for first-in-class drugs
All figures: median upfront, partnering deals since 2018, compared like for like.
Deep Dives on the Themes Reshaping Dealmaking
DEALTRACE LIBRARY
Deal library
Explore therapeutic transactions and their disclosed terms.
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| Date | Buyer / seller | Asset and condition | Deal type | Upfront | Total value | Details |
|---|
What the Data Tells Us
China-origin assets now make up about one in six deals, up from one in a hundred in 2018–19.
2018–Dec 2019 and Oct 2025–Oct 2026
17%of deals signed in the last 12 months, against 1% in 2018–19Buyers pay about 65% more upfront for China-origin assets than for similar deals.
2018–Oct 2026
$25Mmedian upfront, against $15M for comparable dealsAbout one in five large pharma deals now involves a China-origin asset, up from almost none in 2018–19.
2018–Dec 2019 and Oct 2025–Oct 2026
22%of large pharma’s deals in the last 12 months, against 0% in 2018–19
How China’s Share of Dealmaking Grew
From Fast Follower to Originator
2018–Oct 2026
First in Class, by Period
First in Class, by Modality
In 2018–21, 90% of China-origin assets were on well-validated targets, the profile of a fast follower.
First in class: no approved drug works the same way. Share of deals where this was assessed.
The Premium Is Widest at Phase 1
2018–Oct 2026
Median partnering upfront incl. equity, matched on stage, buyer size, rights and signing period.
What China Is Selling
2018–Oct 2026
Therapeutic Area
Modality
Development Stage
Only categories with enough deals to compare are shown.
Select a row to list those deals.
Who Buys, Who Sells
Most Active Buyers
2018–Oct 2026
Most Active Sellers
2018–Oct 2026
Buyers by Company Size
2018–Oct 2026
The Biggest China-Origin Deals
All China-Origin Deals
| Date | Deal | Type | Stage | Therapeutic area | Indication | Modality | Upfront (incl. equity) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | Two preclinical ADC programmes plus Roche-target ADC disco… | License | Preclinical | Oncology | Multiple cancer types; specific tumour populatio… | Antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) | $400M | — |
| 29 Sep 2026 | HRS-1596 | License | Preclinical | Metabolic | obesity and type 2 diabetes | Small molecule | $300M | $2.6B |
| 1 Sep 2026 | SIM0660 | License | Preclinical | Immunology | B-cell-mediated diseases; B-cell-mediated autoim… | Bispecific/multispecific antibody | $75M | $1.5B |
| 28 Aug 2026 | DUPAC novel-payload ADC collaboration | Research collaboration | Discovery | Oncology | Solid tumors | Antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) | $45M | — |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Undisclosed oral immunology small molecule | License | Preclinical | Immunology | Type 2 inflammatory diseases; Inflammatory disea… | Small molecule | $75.9M | $1.5B |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Up to 10 proposed mAb and ADC biosimilars; the initial thr… | Option to license | — | Oncology | Metastatic colorectal cancer; Head and neck squa… | Antibody therapeutic | — | $322M |
| 10 Aug 2026 | bofanglutide; GZR18 | License | Phase 3 | Metabolic | Obesity; Overweight; Type 2 diabetes mellitus (a… | Peptide therapeutic | $71.6M | $839M |
| 4 Aug 2026 | JSKN016 | License | Phase 3 | Oncology | Triple-negative breast cancer; Breast cancer; Lu… | Antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) | $125M | $2.2B |
| 14 Jul 2026 | Zegfrovy (sunvozertinib), an oral irreversible EGFR inhibi… | License | Filed or Approved | Oncology | EGFR exon 20 insertion-positive non-small cell l… | Small molecule | $600M | $1.5B |
| 14 Jul 2026 | SP001 (IBI355) and CD40L antibody backups, with future mul… | License | Phase 1 | Immunology | IgG4-related disease (planned development); Prim… | Antibody therapeutic | $35M | $1.1B |
Showing up to 10 example deals for the selected view.
Appendix: How We Count
What counts. Therapeutics deals in the DealTrace library where the asset or company originates in China. The rest of the library includes deals of unknown origin, so it is not a verified non-China group.
Comparisons. “Rest of library” means every other deal in the library. Partnering covers licenses, options, research collaborations, co-development and asset acquisitions; acquisitions of whole companies are compared separately. Missing figures are never counted as zero. Upfront comparisons are like for like: medians are matched on stage, buyer size, rights and signing period. Trends compare the last 12 months with 2018–19.
Coverage. Library as of 23 Oct 2026.
Info
A DealTrace report on deals for drugs and companies originating in China.
What the Data Tells Us
Rare disease assets now make up 38% of all deals, down from 49% in 2018–19.
2018–Dec 2019 and Oct 2025–Oct 2026
38%of deals signed in the last 12 months, against 49% in 2018–19Buyers pay about 20% more upfront for rare disease assets than for similar deals.
2018–Oct 2026
$20Mmedian upfront, against $17M for comparable dealsRepurposed drugs show a smaller upfront discount in rare disease.
44% lessversus 71% less elsewhere
Rare Disease Share of Dealmaking
Deals per Year
- 49% → 38% share of all deals, 2018–19 against the last 12 months.
- 1,150 rare disease deals since 2018.
- 2020 was the busiest full year, with 145 deals.
Rare Disease Pricing Against the Market
2018–Oct 2026
Buyers pay about 20% more upfront for rare disease assets than for similar deals: a median of $20M against $17M.
- At large pharma: $65M against $55M.
- At smaller buyers: $11M against $10M.
- Median upfront incl. equity, partnering deals since 2018, matched on stage, buyer size, rights and signing period.
Repurposing in Rare Disease
2018–Oct 2026
Repurposed drugs show a smaller upfront discount in rare disease.
Rare Disease
44% lessupfront vs new drugsOther Diseases
71% lessupfront vs new drugsLike-for-like median partnering upfronts.
Repurposing accounts for 10% of rare-disease deals and 13% elsewhere; 52% of rare-disease repurposing deals are signed at filing or approval.
Assets Being Licensed
2018–Oct 2026
Share of each group’s deals in each category. A deal can fall in more than one category. Select a row to see those deals.
Only categories with enough deals to compare are shown.
Buyers and Sellers
572 buyers and 822 sellers. Most active buyers: Eli Lilly, Novartis and Merck & Co. 28% of large pharma deals now involve rare disease assets, against 46% in 2018–19.
Most Active Buyers
2018–Oct 2026
Most Active Sellers
2018–Oct 2026
Who Buys, by Company Size
2018–Oct 2026
All Rare Disease Deals
| Date | Deal | Type | Stage | Therapeutic area | Indication | Modality | Upfront (incl. equity) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | KG013 | License | — | Immunology | IgA nephropathy | Antibody therapeutic | — | $581M |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Silence Therapeutics siRNA pipeline and platform, led by D… | Acquisition | Phase 2 | Hematology | Polycythemia vera (lead Divesiran programme); br… | RNA therapeutic | $1.3B | $1.3B |
| 13 Oct 2026 | VIS-102 (HT006.2.2) | License | Phase 1 | Ophthalmology | Neurotrophic keratitis | Recombinant protein therapeutic | — | $111M |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Lixudebart (ALEF-02) | License | Phase 2 | Immunology | ANCA-associated vasculitis with rapidly progress… | Antibody therapeutic | $355M | $1.6B |
| 2 Oct 2026 | ABO2203; options on additional RNA therapeutic programs | License | Phase 1 | Immunology | Autoimmune diseases | RNA therapeutic | $575M | $7.8B |
| 28 Sep 2026 | SPR2015 | License | Preclinical | Oncology | KRAS G12D-mutated solid tumors | Small molecule | $400M | $2.1B |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Mantle Therapeutics Friedreich ataxia pipeline | Acquisition | — | Neurology | Friedreich ataxia | Small molecule | $8.3M | $20.3M |
| 21 Sep 2026 | ITM portfolio including ITM-11 (177Lu-edotreotide) | Acquisition | Phase 3 | Oncology | Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Lu… | Therapeutic radiopharmaceutical | $1.6B | $2.4B |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Marea cardioendocrine antibody portfolio: MAR001/MAR005 an… | Acquisition | Phase 2 | Metabolic | Severe hypertriglyceridemia; Acromegaly | Antibody therapeutic | $352M | $352M |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Unnamed trispecific T-cell engager programme for multiple … | Asset acquisition | Preclinical | Oncology | Multiple myeloma | Bispecific/multispecific antibody | — | $750M |
Showing up to 10 example deals for the selected view.
Appendix: How We Count
What counts. Therapeutics deals in the DealTrace library tagged as involving a rare disease. A deal not tagged as rare disease is not confirmed as non-rare.
Comparisons. “Rest of library” means every other deal in the library. Partnering covers licenses, options, research collaborations, co-development and asset acquisitions; acquisitions of whole companies are compared separately. Missing figures are never counted as zero. Upfront comparisons are like for like: medians are matched on stage, buyer size, rights and signing period. Trends compare the last 12 months with 2018–19.
Coverage. Library as of 23 Oct 2026.
Info
A DealTrace report on dealmaking in rare diseases.
What the Data Tells Us
AI’s share of partnering has more than tripled since 2022.
2022–Dec 2022 and Oct 2025–Oct 2026
10%of partnering deals in the last 12 months, against 3% in 2022Most AI deals happen at the earliest stages, in discovery and preclinical work.
2018–Oct 2026
97%at discovery or preclinical stage, against 43% for other dealsMost AI companies signing deals are newcomers; only a few have done many.
2018–Oct 2026
17 of 22AI partners in the last 12 months had no earlier deal on recordCalling a company “AI” says little, so we count a deal only when AI is central to it.
Kind of company Examples Develops its own drugs Discovery partnerships with pharma Sells AI software, data or models Drug developers founded on AIBuilt to discover drugs with AI; run their own programs and partner with pharma. Isomorphic LabsinsitroIambic Drug developers that use AIDrug developers first, with AI in how they work. Many license in or buy drugs. RecursionFormation BioPathos AI HybridsDevelop their own drugs, partner with pharmaceutical companies, and sell software. Insilico MedicineSchrödinger AI platform and data partnersNo drugs of their own; supply models, data or discovery work to those who do. Chai DiscoveryTempus AI Frontier AI labs and big techGeneral AI and computing companies moving into life sciences. Tracked separately. AnthropicOpenAINVIDIA Model and software vendorsSell model or software access only. Not counted as AI deals. — YesSomeEarly signals onlyNo“AI-enabled” describes nearly everyone, so we count a deal only when the company itself says AI is central to it. Whether a drug is “AI-designed” mostly rests on the company’s own claims.
Kinds of AI Deals
What Kind of Deals
2018–Oct 2026
A drug developer pays an AI company to find new drug candidates, usually with milestones for each target. 24 use the partner's core AI discovery engine; 5 include an equity stake.
See the 60 deals
- Sep 2026 Novo Nordisk with Orbis Medicines
- Jul 2026 China Medical System with Insilico Medicine
- Jul 2026 AstraZeneca with CSPC Pharmaceutical $30M upfront
- Jul 2026 Takeda Pharmaceutical with Insilico Medicine
- Jun 2026 Merck & Co. with Protillion Biosciences
- Jun 2026 Novartis with Orionis Biosciences $40M upfront
- Jun 2026 Alnylam Pharmaceuticals with Inceptive Nucleics $30M upfront
- May 2026 Incyte with Genesis Molecular AI $120M upfront
- Apr 2026 Eli Lilly with Profluent Bio
- Mar 2026 Merck & Co. with Infinimmune
- Mar 2026 Eli Lilly with Insilico Medicine
- Feb 2026 Novo Nordisk with Vivtex
- Feb 2026 Angelini Pharma with Quiver Bioscience
- Feb 2026 Novartis with Unnatural Products
- Feb 2026 Takeda Pharmaceutical with Iambic Therapeutics $27M upfront
- Jan 2026 Qilu Pharmaceutical with Insilico Medicine
- Jan 2026 Eli Lilly with Nimbus Therapeutics
- Jan 2026 Sanofi with Earendil Labs
- Jan 2026 Servier with Insilico Medicine
- Jan 2026 Eli Lilly with InduPro
- Dec 2025 Pfizer with Adaptive Biotechnologies
- Dec 2025 Novartis with Relation Therapeutics $55M upfront
- Nov 2025 Eli Lilly with Ailux
- Nov 2025 Roche with Manifold Bio $55M upfront
- Oct 2025 AstraZeneca with Algen Biotechnologies
- Sep 2025 Novartis with Monte Rosa Therapeutics $120M upfront
- Aug 2025 Eli Lilly with Superluminal Medicines
- Aug 2025 DoveTree Medicines with XtalPi $51M upfront
- Jul 2025 Chugai Pharmaceutical with Gero
- Jul 2025 argenx with Unnatural Products
- Jun 2025 AstraZeneca with CSPC Pharmaceutical $110M upfront
- Jun 2025 Novo Nordisk with Deep Apple Therapeutics
- Jun 2025 Eli Lilly with Juvena Therapeutics
- May 2025 Genentech (Roche) with Orionis Biosciences $105M upfront
- Apr 2025 Eli Lilly with Creyon Bio $13M upfront
- Jan 2025 Novo Nordisk with Valo Health
- Jan 2025 Pfizer with PostEra $12M upfront
- Dec 2024 Novartis with BioAge Labs $20M upfront
- Sep 2024 Novartis with Generate Biomedicines $65M upfront
- Apr 2024 Merck KGaA with Caris Life Sciences
- Jan 2024 Eli Lilly with Isomorphic Labs $45M upfront
- Jan 2024 Novartis with Isomorphic Labs $37.5M upfront
- Dec 2023 AstraZeneca with Absci
- Nov 2023 Eli Lilly with PRISM BioLab
- Nov 2023 Almirall with Absci
- Oct 2023 Roche with Monte Rosa Therapeutics $50M upfront
- Sep 2023 Novo Nordisk with Valo Health
- Sep 2023 Alexion (AstraZeneca) with Verge Genomics
- Nov 2022 Sanofi with Insilico Medicine $21.5M upfront
- May 2022 Bristol Myers Squibb with Evotec $200M upfront
- May 2022 Eli Lilly with Genesis Therapeutics $20M upfront
- Feb 2022 Blueprint Medicines with Proteovant Therapeutics $20M upfront
- Jan 2022 Sanofi with Exscientia $100M upfront
- Jan 2022 Merck & Co. with Absci
- Jan 2022 Amgen with Generate Biomedicines $50M upfront
- Dec 2021 Roche with Recursion Pharmaceuticals $150M upfront
- Oct 2020 Bristol Myers Squibb with Insitro $50M upfront
- Sep 2020 Bayer with Recursion Pharmaceuticals $80M upfront
- Jan 2020 Ionis Pharmaceuticals with Empirico $10M upfront
- Apr 2019 Gilead Sciences with Insitro $15M upfront
A drug developer licenses a drug candidate that the AI company designed.
See the 6 deals
- Aug 2026 Genentech (Roche) with Hanmi Pharmaceutical $190M upfront
- Jun 2026 Boulevard Bio with METiS TechBio $20M upfront
- Jan 2026 Hygtia Therapeutics with Insilico Medicine $10M upfront
- Apr 2025 Sanofi with Earendil Labs $125M upfront
- Jan 2025 Stemline Therapeutics (Menarini) with Insilico Medicine $20M upfront
- Sep 2023 Exelixis with Insilico Medicine $80M upfront
A drug developer licenses a drug from an AI company that was not designed with its AI.
See the 4 deals
- Jan 2026 AstraZeneca with CSPC Pharmaceutical
- Sep 2025 VectorY Therapeutics with Shape Therapeutics
- Jun 2025 Sanofi with Formation Bio / Libertas Bio
- Sep 2024 Merck & Co. with Evaxion Biotech $3.2M upfront
AI’s Share of All Partnering Deals
AI Deal Pricing Against the Market
2018–Oct 2026
Buyers pay about 15% more upfront in AI deals than in similar deals: a median of $40M against $35M.
- Partnering deals since 2018, matched on stage, buyer size, rights and signing period.
Most Active Drug Developers in AI
Deals by Drug Developer
2018–Oct 2026
Who Signs AI Deals, by Company Size
2018–Oct 2026
AI Companies Are Buyers Too
2018–Oct 2026
Drug Developers Founded on AI
Built to find drugs with AI, they now buy and license drugs like any biotech: 5 acquisitions and 9 licenses so far.
- Recursion4 deals
Founded on AI; has grown partly by acquiring other AI drug companies.
- Formation Bio2 deals
Uses AI to run drug development more efficiently, and buys or licenses drugs to develop.
- Pathos AI1 deal
AI-driven cancer drug developer that licenses in and acquires clinical-stage drugs.
- Biossil1 deal
Drug developer founded on AI, building a pipeline of its own.
Frontier AI Labs
General AI companies edging into drug discovery. Tracked separately.
- Sep 2026Anthropic × Novo NordiskData & models
- Jul 2026Anthropic × ICONClinical development
- Apr 2026Anthropic × Coefficient BioAcquisition, reported
AI Partners of Drug Developers
Every AI Partner, Sized by Deals
2018–Oct 2026
AI Partners Signing Each Year
All AI Deals
| Date | Deal | Kind | Stage | Therapeutic area | Modality | Upfront (incl. equity) | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | nGen AI-enabled oral macrocycle discovery programs for cardiometabol… | Discovery collaboration | Discovery | Metabolic | Small molecule | — | $1.4B |
| 24 Aug 2026 | HM17321 | AI-designed drug license | Phase 1 | Metabolic | Peptide therapeutic | $190M | $2.3B |
| 4 Aug 2026 | JSKN016 | AI company licenses in | Phase 3 | Oncology | Antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) | $125M | $2.2B |
| 14 Jul 2026 | ridinilazole | AI company licenses in | Phase 3 | Infectious disease | Small molecule | $0.5M | $105M |
| 12 Jul 2026 | A PandaOmics-nominated CNS target with an undisclosed "mass-market" … | Discovery collaboration | Discovery | Neurology | Small molecule | — | — |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Two preclinical siRNA candidates for kidney diseases | Discovery collaboration | Preclinical | Renal | Oligonucleotide therapeutic | $30M | $1.8B |
| 1 Jul 2026 | AI-discovered therapeutics across Takeda-selected therapeutic areas | Discovery collaboration | Discovery | Multiple | Small molecule | — | — |
| 30 Jun 2026 | MTS-128 | AI-designed drug license | Preclinical | Oncology | Bispecific/multispecific antibody; Antibody therapeutic | $20M | $1.6B |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Protillion's Prot-MaP™ platform for AI-enabled biologics discovery a… | Discovery collaboration | Discovery | Multiple | Recombinant protein therapeutic | — | — |
| 10 Jun 2026 | molecular glue medicines | Discovery collaboration | Discovery | Other | Small molecule | $40M | $1.4B |
Showing up to 10 example deals for the selected view.
Appendix: How an AI Deal Differs From a Typical One, and How We Count
2018–Oct 2026
Only categories with enough deals to compare are shown.
What counts. Therapeutics deals in the DealTrace library, reviewed one by one: the partner is AI-native, the deal explicitly covers a named AI capability, or the announcement says the drug was designed with AI. 12 deals that mention AI only in passing are left out.
Comparisons. “Other deals” means every partnering deal in the library without an AI partner. Prices compare the same kind of deal, and for drug licenses the same stage. Missing figures are never counted as zero. Headline value includes milestones. 3 package deals bundling AI work with other drugs or technology count as deals but not in price comparisons.
Coverage. “First deal on record” means the first in the library. Library as of 23 Oct 2026.
Info
A DealTrace report on how drug developers partner with AI companies, and what they pay.
What the Data Tells Us
For the same kind of deal, large pharma pays about seven times as much upfront as smaller buyers.
$66Mmedian upfront for large pharma, against $10M for smaller buyersLarge pharma tends to buy earlier, before a drug has been tested in patients.
62%of its partnering deals are discovery or preclinical, against 34%Large pharma is more likely than smaller buyers to buy first-in-class science.
70%first in class, against 51% for smaller buyers
Large Pharma and Everyone Else
Large Pharma
$10B+ in annual prescription sales
30 companies
AbbVie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, CSL, Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, Eli Lilly, GSK, Gilead Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Merck KGaA, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Otsuka, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, Takeda, Teva, UCB, Vertex, ViatrisMedium and Small Companies
Under $10B in annual prescription sales
When and How They Buy
Stage at Signing
2018–Oct 2026
Kind of Deal
2018–Oct 2026
What They Pay
2018–Oct 2026
Median Upfront by Stage
Partnering deals; upfront includes equity. Medians are shown by stage and are not matched on other deal characteristics.
Whole-company acquisitions: median $1.6B against $283M.
Where They Buy
2018–Oct 2026
Share of each buyer group's deals. A deal can include more than one therapeutic area.
Appendix: How We Compare
Buyer groups. Buyer size is assigned at each deal’s signing. “Large pharma” means roughly $10B+ in annual prescription sales, with reviewed exceptions (Biogen, Eisai, Merck KGaA, Otsuka, Regeneron, UCB); everyone else is “medium and small”. 2026 sales reference ↗
Prices. The headline comparison matches deals on stage, rights and signing period. Stage charts show plain medians within each stage. Missing amounts are never counted as zero.
Shares. Shares use each group’s own deal count; a deal can name more than one therapeutic area. First-in-class and proof-of-concept shares use deals with a known assessment.
Info
Compare large pharma with medium and small buyers across stages, deal terms, four research fields and therapeutic areas.